Media Mix: The Obama Victory
there are lessons -- many lessons -- to be learned
2008-01-04
By Eric Easter

Senator Barack Obama pulled off a stunning victory. But it’s important to understand that Iowa is a start, not a finish. A summary of some lessons learned and what to expect in the next few months:

Obama Was/Is More Than A Movement

Iowa, more than anything else, is not so much a test of message as it is of organization. Winning in Iowa requires an incredible amount of finely detailed town by town, street by street, house by house coordination. As Howard Dean learned all too well, inspiration is only a beginning, it’s the groundwork that’s most important. This win shows Obama’s ability to put together a winning strategic team, perhaps a greater predictor of his leadership skills than the victory itself.

The Biggest Blow Was to Bill Clinton, Not Hillary

The third place showing of Hillary Clinton is not simply a loss for her, it’s a tremendous upbraiding to the (Bill) Clinton machine. Too much money plus the assumption of an eight year old coalition is a dangerous mix. By the end of this thing, Mrs. Clinton may in fact eventually win the greater race. But in the immediate, a loss in the one state that is defined by a need for organization exposes a serious gap in strategic thinking  at the  Clinton headquarters.

Simply put, heads will roll.

The Honeymoon Has Begun/ The Honeymoon is Over

The major pundits desperately wanted an Obama victory. They’ve never really liked Hillary and they’ve always been suspicious of John Edwards’ money and good looks. They now have the perfect storm – a mix of political intrigue, an ongoing play on America’s fascination with race race, and the potential for a newly written American history challenge to American history. Not to mention increased ratings and newspaper sales.

At the same time, expect dramatically greater scrutiny, particularly where international policy comes into play. Obama’s ride on this cloud of collective joy will depend largely on the stability of world affairs during the race. If it gets too crazy – like it already has in his Dad’s native Kenya – Obama will be asked to weigh in, and his facts better be dead on, or he risks tough attacks from the Clintonistas.

In that regard, Susan Rice, Obama’s foreign policy advisor, becomes the single most important political staffer in the race.

We’ll Find Out Much More About Who’s Behind Obama

We know about David Axelrod, but outside of the Beltway, nobody knows who’s playing behind the scenes in the Obama camp. Expect them to be flushed from behind the curtains. This could be good or bad. If this newly visible cast is not as diverse as people might expect, it could set off a backlash in whatever community doesn’t find itself represented.

In particular, expect Rice, Obama’s foreign policy advisor to be much more visible, particularly as the Florida primary gets near and Obama’s stated approach of “engagement” of foreign leaders gets criticized by the vehement anti-Castro crowd in Miami.

Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton Will Be Vilified/Conservatives Will Declare the End of Race as We Know It

It’s already begun. Bill Bennett could barely contain his glee on CNN that Obama’s win, in his opinion,  was a smack in the face to Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton.  A core group of conservatives are eager to eliminate the discussion of race from the American dialogue, and the willingness of vastly white Iowa to vote for Obama will be seen as a metaphorical nail in the coffin for everything from affirmative action to college scholarships to business loans.

On the Other Hand, Things Have Changed

The daily insults we still face as a result of race may contradict a greater truth, but Black America has to admit that some things have changed. White people are sick and tired of being called racists. Joe Public  in the Midwest who can’t afford health insurance does not appreciate being lumped in with the institutional racism power structure – and he shouldn’t be. He and his friends want to send a message that they are better than we imagine they are. If a major dialogue on race is ever to happen, we have to give a little on this point, as much it may go against everything we’ve been programmed to think.

Some Perspective is Necessary

Exciting as an Iowa win for a Black candidate may be,  it’s important to note that Obama is not the first to win a major primary. Jesse Jackson won the south and Michigan in 1988, all delegate-rich states. In the end, he still lost.
Obama has an even tougher road ahead. Voter registration is now a matter of a phone call away, but an amazing number of African Americans are still not registered. Voter participation among African Americans remains dramatically low. Voter fraud at the polls is still a very real issue in important states like Ohio and Florida. The battle has just begun.

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Eric Easter is Chief of Digital Strategy for Johnson Publishing Company. He writes about politics, culture and technology for ebonyjet.com.